Evolving Middle East Crisis Thread

Politics & Current Events

  1. Calabrio

    Calabrio Dedicated LVC Member

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    Muslim Brotherhood: ‘Prepare Egyptians for war with Israel'
    http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=206130

    A leading member of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt told the Arabic-language Iranian news network Al-Alam on Monday that he would like to see the Egyptian people prepare for war against Israel, according to the Hebrew-language business newspaper Calcalist.

    Muhammad Ghannem reportedly told Al- Alam that the Suez Canal should be closed immediately, and that the flow of gas from Egypt to Israel should cease “in order to bring about the downfall of the Mubarak regime.” He added that “the people should be prepared for war against Israel,” saying the world should understand that “the Egyptian people are prepared for anything to get rid of this regime.”

    Ghannem praised Egyptian soldiers deployed by President Hosni Mubarak to Egyptian cities, saying they “would not kill their brothers.” He added that Washington was forced to abandon plans to help Mubarak stay in power after “seeing millions head for the streets.”
     
  2. topher5150

    topher5150 Dedicated LVC Member

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    so why attack Israel. Is the Muslim Brotherhood using this as a spring board to wipe Israel off the map
     
  3. 04SCTLS

    04SCTLS Dedicated LVC Member

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    They're not all jihadists.
    This revolt was started on social media (the new weapon next to stuxnet)
    by the little guys inspired by Tunisia.
    Egypt has a significant middle class.
    The Islamic Brotherhood just jumped on the bandwagon.
    Actually having power is more sobering than musing
    and making threats.
    The situation still has a few acts to play out.
    Mubarek will probably leave by the weekend
    if not sooner.
    They're going to stay out there till he does.
     
  4. Marcus

    Marcus Dedicated LVC Member

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    Before going into full panic mode, it'd be nice to see the full transcript of this interview. Every single mention of this that I could find on Google pointed to the same second-hand account from some Hebrew language paper. There's no context for any of the quotes. For example, “the Egyptian people are prepared for anything to get rid of this regime” - which regime, Egypt or Israel? This thing reeks of selective quoting for the purpose of propaganda. The MB are not Jihadists, and it's debatable whether they have much, if any, influence in the uprising.
     
  5. Calabrio

    Calabrio Dedicated LVC Member

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    So, in your humble opinion, you don't think that there's a significant risk that a radical Islamic group may take power in Egypt, provided Mubarak leaves power?

    You mention the "significant middle class," but are you aware of the huge government programs, the high unemployment, the austerity measures that have resulted in cuts to these benefits, and the skyrocketing increases in food costs?

    Are you familiar with Iran?
    That started out as a "democratic student revolution" and we've seen how that worked out. And at that time, Iran was actually a quite modern country with an actual middle class as well.
     
  6. Calabrio

    Calabrio Dedicated LVC Member

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    What's the motto of the Muslim Brotherhood?

    "Allah is our objective. The Prophet is our leader. Qur'an is our law. Jihad is our way. Dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope."

    Whether they helped trigger the response is not important, the concern is their ability to mobilize and capitalize on the events after.
     
  7. shagdrum

    shagdrum Dedicated LVC Member

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    What I have read indicates otherwise...
    Why We Should Fear the Moslem Brother
    By Karin McQuillan

    As we follow the unfolding story in Egypt, we are torn between hope and fear -- hope that democracy will gain a toehold and fear that the fundamentalist Moslem Brothers could take control of Egypt. Perhaps you have heard the Moslem Brothers are the oldest and largest radical Islamic group, the grandfather of Hezbollah, Hamas, and al-Qaeda.

    What you haven't been told is this: the Moslem Brothers were a small, unpopular group of anti-modern fanatics unable to attract members, until they were adopted by Adolf Hitler and the Third Reich beginning in the 1930s. Under the tutelage of the Third Reich, the Brothers started the modern jihadi movement, complete with a genocidal program against Jews. In the words of Matthias Kuntzel, "[t]he significance of the Brotherhood to Islamism is comparable to that of the Bolshevik Party to communism: It was and remains to this day the ideological reference point and organizational core for all later Islamist groups, including al-Qaeda and Hamas."

    What is equally ominous for Jews and Israel is that despite Mubarak's pragmatic coexistence with Israel for the last thirty years, every Egyptian leader from Nasser through Sadat to Mubarak has enshrined Nazi Jew-hatred in mainstream Egyptian culture out of both conviction and political calculation. Nasser, trained by Nazis as a youth, spread the genocidal conspiracy theories of the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, making it a bestseller throughout the Arab world. On the Ramadan following 9/11, Mubarak presided over a thirty-week-long TV series dramatizing Elders and its genocidal message... ​
     
  8. Marcus

    Marcus Dedicated LVC Member

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    Yes that was the motto. In 1928.

    Nevermind the meaning of "jihad" itself didn't necessarily mean then what it does to most of us today. Or that the MB has been condemned by most real Muslim radicals like al Qaeda as too moderate. All I'm saying is that it could be much worse. Maybe it will indeed turn out to be much worse. I'm just not yet willing to set my hair on fire based on some questionable quotes in an obscure Israeli newspaper.
     
  9. Calabrio

    Calabrio Dedicated LVC Member

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    Did they change it?
    Do you know anything about the Brotherhood, or did your education on them begin this weekend?

    You are right.
    Their use of the word jihad is much more violent and subversive than the one you would like to imagine.

    That was a popular "factoid" repeated this weekend, the Western media seems quite enthusiastic about rewriting the history and agenda of that organization. Look at how this clown frames things at 1:20.
    YouTube - CNN Interviews Member of Muslim Brotherhood

    It's always good to give jihadist the every benefit of the doubt
     
  10. 04SCTLS

    04SCTLS Dedicated LVC Member

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    Mubarek's time has come and there is nothing we can do so we have to make the best of it.
    He is our stooge and all our money won't another minute buy.
    Nobody's burning american flags and shouting death to america.
    It is interesting to see military power trumped by the will of human spirit.
    We can try to keep our own immigrant muslim population from growing for national security but we have to deal with them in their own countries.
     
  11. Marcus

    Marcus Dedicated LVC Member

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    OK Cal, you win. I was just trying to suggest toning down the fear and paranoia instead of relying on an as-yet unproven third person source and youtube videos. I don't have the energy or the desire to engage in a pissing contest with you.
     
  12. Calabrio

    Calabrio Dedicated LVC Member

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    The issue isn't whether Mubarek is a good guy or if we should have supported him. I think his character is self-evident. And the continued relationship was a compromise for designed to perpetuate regional stability, initially developed during the Cold War.

    It's not an issue of if Egypt or Mubarek's regime falls, it's a question of when- and how quickly and how orderly.

    What are the consequences.
    In order to evaluate that, you have to look at the organizations that are active on the ground and the history of the region. As mentioned before, Iran started out as a Democratic revolution against the Shah, but about a month later, the Ayatollah took power.

    There's nothing we can do either way, except prepare ourselves.


    And how are the dominoes going to fall.
     
  13. 04SCTLS

    04SCTLS Dedicated LVC Member

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    Current events like this are so exciting because you may as well throw your conventional wisdom out the window and keep your fingers crossed during the suspense.

    You're getting too far ahead of the story.
     
  14. Calabrio

    Calabrio Dedicated LVC Member

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    Simple question.
    Why did the U.S. help support Mubarak in Egypt?
    The short answer is- because he kept his thumb on the Muslim Brotherhood and he respected the peace treaty with Israel.

    Are you familiar with the Suez Crisis in '56, the 6 day war, or the Yom Kippur Wars?
     
  15. 04SCTLS

    04SCTLS Dedicated LVC Member

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    The peace treaty is really a bribe.
    Bribery is vice and of dubious morality.
    Virtues bought with bribery are tainted and easily abandoned.
    If he didn't do what we want we would withold big money.
    It is not a warm peace by any means.
    We give billions of dollars a year to Israel and slightly less to Egypt.
    Maybe this will be a good time to re evaluate foreign aid.
     
  16. Marcus

    Marcus Dedicated LVC Member

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    Of course I am. But as 04 has stated, you're getting way ahead of yourself and we need to step back and see how it plays out before panicking. The amount of influence the MB has is not known, but all indications so far show that it is minimal. I have seen little in the way of anti-American rhetoric from the protesters. Bryan Williams is walking freely in the streets, almost ignored. This looks nothing like the Iranian revolution of 79.
     
  17. 04SCTLS

    04SCTLS Dedicated LVC Member

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    I don't think average Egyptians want to tangle with the Israeli military which is light years ahead of anything the Muslims can ever accomplish.

    When Arab countries tangle with Israel militarily the results are usually pretty humiliating.
    That's one reason the Arabs hate Israel and resort to ridiculous ad hominem slander and blood libel stories out of their envy, jealousy and frustration with the intellectually superior jew.(stuxnet plus 140 Nobel prizes from 14 million jews vs 5 from 1.4 billion muslims)
    Other than the Yom Kipper war where Nixon saved Israel with round the clock airlifts to push back the Egyptian onslaught the Arabs have shown themselves as inept tribal primitives in war compared to the almost joyful precision ballet of the Israeli military.
     
  18. Calabrio

    Calabrio Dedicated LVC Member

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    I've never advocated "panic."
    People panic when they are caught off guard.
    My entire goal is to avoid panic. To anticipate what is going to happen, using reason and history as a guide, and prepare accordingly.

    But, I'd also remind you that the story here is broader than just Egypt.
    It's broader than just Tunisia.
    The point I keep returning to is that world is not stable right now, neither politically nor economically. The consequences of the last century are coming to the forefront, and it won't take much before all the competing interests seize on an international opportunity and the general apathy of the public.
     
  19. Calabrio

    Calabrio Dedicated LVC Member

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    But when you say that, who are the Egyptians" your speaking of?
    It all would depend on which government takes control of the country.

    Yes, but again, this requires you to evaluate the motivations of the leader.
    If avoiding humiliation was the issue, you wouldn't have seen all of the subsequent wars following the Suez Crisis.

    To put it simply, Islam is an extremely insecure culture. It's very much motivated by humiliation. The desire to "get back" at Israel follow such humiliating defeats in the 20th century has not gone away, nor would it take much effort to reignite it.

    This is a condescending and fatal mistake of the West.
    The Arabs are NOT stupid. The leadership of these groups are Western educated and understand the way the West works better than most Westerners. That's why they understand how to manipulate the media and government so effectively.

    Nixon didn't save Israel, the U.S. got involved to prevent Soviet involvement.
    Again, much of this is Cold War era legacy problems.
     
  20. 04SCTLS

    04SCTLS Dedicated LVC Member

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    They may not be stupid but Jews are still smarter.
    We should not ignore this fact of life.
    I don't see any of these Arab's manipulating the US as effectively as the Jews.
    They have been manipulating the State Department since 1948 by seeking legal positions and being disproportionately represented.
    They shoot down 80 planes and lose 1 or 2.

    Antisemitic hatred is based on envy and avarice, there is no other explanation.
    When real arguments fail and their military is routed and humiliated the weak and mediocre resort to hideous name calling to make themselves feel better.
     
  21. shagdrum

    shagdrum Dedicated LVC Member

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    What is your basis for this "fact of life"?

    How are they "manipulating" us?

    Your drunk on that anti-zionist kool-aid, aren't you. ;)

    Bitterness as a fall out from the Cold War? A lingering animosity toward Israel that goes back to Biblical times? Some would even say there is a spiritual aspect to this.

    Yet you discount all those notions because the only explanation can be some sort of international class warfare?!

    What arguments? Israel was attacked by Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq the day after it declared it's independence. No arguments were made. How can there be any "real arguments" when one side does not recognize the other's existance as legitimate and seeks nothing short of it's destruction?

    There is not a "breakdown of communication" as you seem to infer.

    It comes down to that core concept of evil in the world and how you deal with it. Do you simply ignore it and pretend it doesn't exist or do you confront it?

    Giving the MB the benefit of the doubt is foolish and dangerous. That same kind of thinking has resulted in the unnecessary deaths of far too many throughout history. The name Neville Chamberlain comes to mind.
     
  22. 04SCTLS

    04SCTLS Dedicated LVC Member

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    _____________________________________________________________

    We have to be guarded about the MB but will probably have to deal with them.
    There are no real arguments from the Arabs.
    Only ad hominem.
    IMO Palastine is no more a real country than if New Jersey declared itself a nation and even the term "Palistinian" was only chosen by the palistinians(new jerseyans:p) in 1961 thirteen years after 1948.
    If Israel had had the strength to not only win but run out all the Arabs who happened to be in Palestine in 1948 instead of only some of them no one would be talking about a Palestinian nation.
    The other Arab countries don't really care about the plight of the "Palastinians"
    But tell that to a 20 year old born in Gaza.
     
  23. shagdrum

    shagdrum Dedicated LVC Member

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    The Palestinian people simply serve as a rationalization for hatred of the Jews and of Israel. They are an excuse, not the underlying cause. Heck, if it did nothing else, Clinton's negotiations pretty well proved that beyond any shadow of a doubt. The true causes for this go well beyond the faux concern for the Palestinian people.
     
  24. 04SCTLS

    04SCTLS Dedicated LVC Member

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    Neither
    You deal with it by being aware of the capacity for evil in historic and personal examples and (attempt to)keep it in check.
     
  25. shagdrum

    shagdrum Dedicated LVC Member

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    :confused:

    Wouldn't that be confronting it?
     

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