Evolving Middle East Crisis Thread

[04SCTLS]

Wouldn't that be confronting it?

Dealing with it is less proactive than confronting it.
Confronting has an interventionist trying to defeat it tone.
We know we will never eliminate petty crime(a lesser evil) like I read on www. theweeklyvice.com so we have laws to deal with it

 

[shagdrum]

Dealing with it is less proactive than confronting it.
Confronting has an interventionist trying to defeat it tone.
We know we will never eliminate petty crime(a lesser evil) like I read on www. theweeklyvice.com so we have laws to deal with it

Never said anything about ending evil. Defeating it when necessary and keeping it in check as much as realistically possible is the basic idea.

"Confronting" and "dealing with" are pretty much the same thing, IMO.

 

[Calabrio]

I have seen little in the way of anti-American rhetoric from the protesters. Bryan Williams is walking freely in the streets, almost ignored. This looks nothing like the Iranian revolution of 79.

Anderson Cooper Attacked by Mob in Egypt

“After Camp David, all the Arab world sees that we are no longer a leader. Camp David made us a slave”
All of the people (no one here) who keep trying to equate this to the fall of the Berlin Wall, or any of these Islamic riots being true demonstrations for freedom as we understand it, are little more than fools.

It looks like chaos.
And the response from people to chaos is a desperate need for order.
Who has the ability and organization to provide this?
The military. The existing regime. Or the Brotherhood.
Which one of these already has leadership, organization, funding and a "unity government" relationship with Albaradei?

 

[04SCTLS]

Anderson Cooper Attacked by Mob in Egypt

“After Camp David, all the Arab world sees that we are no longer a leader. Camp David made us a slave”

It looks like chaos.
All of the people (no one here) who keep trying to equate this to the fall of the Berlin Wall, or any of these Islamic riots being true demonstrations for freedom as we understand it, are little more than fools.

______________________________________________________________

Your 2nd link undercuts your argument

Abdel Aziz, 27, from Mubarak’s hometown of Kfar El-Meselha, held a sign Tuesday saying “Bollocks to you Mubarak, it’s all over”. When asked about Israel, Aziz said “this is not about Israel, this is about our country first, we don’t care about other countries. This is not why we are doing this.”

Ahmad Ragab, 42, spoke more vehemently towards Israel saying “look, all Egyptian people hate Israel, only Sadat wanted Camp David. We know that Israel will be mad about what is happening here, and we know that Netanyahu can’t sleep now. We know that with the change here, there won’t be peace with Israel. There won’t be a war, but I don’t think there will be an Israeli embassy in Egypt any more, we will have only the most minimal relations.”

Ragab, who studied Chinese and works in Egypt-China business relations, said “we know the revolution will change this and that’s that, we see every day what Israel is doing with the Palestinians.”

At the same time, like all others asked by the Jerusalem Post after Mubarak’s speech about the revolution’s meaning for Israel-Egypt relations, Ragab said the issue was not at all at the heart of the January 25th upheaval.

“People in Egypt have no work, no future, 90% of Egyptian people see they have no future. They are tired.” Mohammed Salama issued a similar remark, saying “I work 20 hours a day in security for 300 Egyptian pounds a month, I feel terrible doing this. I studied law, I am a poet and a writer too, but I have no options and I can’t get married. I have a good education, I deserve a good chance to prove I can be somebody.”

As much as resentment towards Israel or the US, or the violence by Mubarak’s security services and the state police are mentioned by the protesters, their movement appears to be much more driven by exhaustion at a future that promises nothing to a largely destitute citizenry that doesn’t feel they have the ability to support themselves or their families. Among young people especially, the issue of not having a future in the country where they grew up stokes their fury, and drives them to seek the answers in democracy. When asked how democracy will bring prosperity to a country where nearly half the populace lives on less than $2/day, most protesters seemed at a loss for a definitive answer, but all expressed absolute certainty that the removal of Mubarak and his, in their view cleptocratic regime, will surely bring them a greater chance at prosperity.

_______________________________________________________-

Such an abysmal situation despite the 2 billion a year we give them.
Without free oil money the other Arab countries would be in the same boat.
No wonder their militaries are paper tigers.
They have nothing to go on but undeserved pride and faith.
Islam is very conservative, it fears and stifles creativity and progressivism like communism did.
Compare this with the accomplishment and the standard of living in Israel.
Egypt really needs to milk more money out of the Suez Canal it's valuable natural asset.
It could be a win win situation.
Raise the standard of living and preclude military (mis)adventures.

 

[Calabrio]

What argument was undercut?

 

[shagdrum]

Islam is very conservative, it fears and stifles creativity and progressivism like communism did.

I assume you are intentionally misapplying these terms in order to be "provocative"...

 

[04SCTLS]

What argument was undercut?

All of the people (no one here) who keep trying to equate this to the fall of the Berlin Wall, or any of these Islamic riots being true demonstrations for freedom as we understand it, are little more than fools.

These are true demonstrations for freedom and economics and the fools are those who see it otherwise.

 

[04SCTLS]

I assume you are intentionally misapplying these terms in order to be "provocative"...

I see you taking the bait....
I was wondering who it would be.
Islam is conservative, dogmatic and stifling.
This is probably a big cause for the mediocrity of these countries
who give their religion too much standing and worship it for pride.
Funny, I think american jews mostly vote democratic.

 

[cammerfe]

Another one bites the dust

These are true demonstrations for freedom and economics and the fools are those who see it otherwise.

Very likely true. The problem is that the situation will be hi-jacked by the likes of the Muslim Brotherhood.

One can draw direct parallels between Egypt now and when the students ran Reza Pahlavi out of Iran. The vacuum was quickly filled by Kohmeini coming back from exile in France. And immediately became the leader of a thoroughly fundamentalist regime that endures today...

KS

 

[04SCTLS]

Very likely true. The problem is that the situation will be hi-jacked by the likes of the Muslim Brotherhood.

One can draw direct parallels between Egypt now and when the students ran Reza Pahlavi out of Iran. The vacuum was quickly filled by Kohmeini coming back from exile in France. And immediately became the leader of a thoroughly fundamentalist regime that endures today...

KS

We overthrew a democratically elected government in 1954 to put the Shah in power.
There is no iconic religious figure taking command of this situation.

 

[shagdrum]

04, you don't seem to think that radicals can co-opt these riots toward their own end.

However, that is the primary means that radicals have historically come to power; by co-opting legitimate grievances and resentments to deceive people into supporting them.

Instead of romanticizing the events in Egypt, how about looking at things realistically.

 

[04SCTLS]

04, you don't seem to think that radicals can co-opt these riots toward their own end.

However, that is the primary means that radicals have historically come to power; by co-opting legitimate grievances and resentments to deceive people into supporting them.

Instead of romanticizing the events in Egypt, how about looking at things realistically.

I am looking at it realistically.
The radicals were as surprised by this as the rest of us.
We (western culture) created the social networking genie, let it out of the bottle and Shazam!
The radicals are still trying not to get in the way of toppling the regime while figuring out how to use this to their advantage.
They will have to promise real economic gains somehow instead of badmouthing jews as a rallying policy.
Whoever says to exploit the Suez canal better as a national asset is on the right track.
We cannot rely on how things have happened before to guide us through this living situation.
There is suspense now shag in this new situation of a middle east economic protest which puts all your knowledge and assumptions of the past on hold.

 

[shagdrum]

I am looking at it realistically.

No, as usual, you are unable to see the forest through the trees.

They will have to promise real economic gains somehow instead of badmouthing jews as a rallying policy.

Yes, like in Iran.

While our culture in America is one where that type of cultural scapegoating isn't very effective, it is VERY effective in other parts of the world. You need to stop looking at the politics of these countries through the lens of western civilization (or, more specifically, from an American standpoint).

Scapegoating the Jews is the main reason that much of the Muslim world is the way it is today, politically. It is how these governments keep power. Look to Iran and the Palistinian people to see the effectiveness of that. It is at least as effective as class warfare tactics have been in the Western world. The MB is setting up their power grab premised on that anti-Jew sentiment and to dismiss that as you do is the height of foolishness.

You don't believe antisemitism will be effective because you don't want to believe it will be effective.

Any expert on the middle east would advise you to never underestimate the effectiveness of appeals to antisemitic sentiment in the Muslim world.

We cannot rely on how things have happened before to guide us through this living situation.

Wow. That may be the most foolish thing I have ever heard you say.

If you don't rely on the past and the patterns of human interaction therein, then everything is speculation. However, when you do rely on the past as an indicator of the future there is actually a very large success rate in predicting the future. (BTW, if you are going to reject looking to the past as an indicator of the future, you have to reject ALL science as well, because that principle is the cornerstone of all science).

People who don't want to look to the past and who make excuses to avoid doing so, tend to be those unable to look at things realistically.

 

[04SCTLS]

No, as usual, you are unable to see the forest through the trees.



Yes, like in Iran.

While our culture is one where that type of cultural scapegoating doesn't work, it is VERY effective in other parts of the world. You need to stop looking at the politics of these countries through the lens of western civilization (or, more specifically, from an American standpoint).

Scapegoating the Jews is the main reason that much of the Muslim world is the way it is today. Look to Iran and the Palistinian people to see the effectiveness of that. The MB is setting up their power grab premised on that and to dismiss that as you do is the height of foolishness.

You don't believe it will be effective because you don't want to believe it will be effective.



Wow. That may be the most foolish thing I have ever heard you say.

If you don't rely on the past and the patterns of human interaction therein, then everything is speculation. However, when you do rely on the past as an indicator of the future there is actually a very large success rate in predicting the future. (BTW, if you are going to reject looking to the past as an indicator of the future, you have to reject ALL science as well, because that principle is the cornerstone of all science).

People who don't want to look to the past and who make excuses to avoid doing so, tend to be those unable to look at things realistically.

Scapegoating Jews and blaming others for your failures only goes so far.
At some point you actually have to have your own accomplishments.
Hating jews does not put food on the table.

And again you are so black and white.
The past is only a guide to the future and past performance does not guarantee future results (as the personal injury lawyers claim in the fine print)
You cannot accurately predict the outcome of this event.
I'm not dismissing that the MB will try to gain power in this opportunity, I just don't see them as being a current formidable opponent.
They have more immediate problems than indulging in jew hating right now.
We do business with various other muslim governments and even the Iranian revolution did not change these things much in 31 years.
I think the fear of the thing(MB) is greater than the thing itself.

 

[shagdrum]

Scapegoating Jews and blaming others for your failures only goes so far.

And it goes VERY far in the Middle East.

Blaming others for your failures is a very effective tactic in politics and takes many forms. Class warfare in the western world and, in the Middle East, antisemitism.

While you may not want to believe it, the truth is that scapegoating has allowed countless tyrannies to gain power and to stay in power as large masses of the populace suffer and die.

Scapegoating has also allowed radicals to co-opt legitimate resentments toward their own ends (the Nazi, for example). It is a good way to redirect resentments toward your favor (and away from your failures).

In fact, there have been instances where you have bought into various types of scapegoating (your hostility toward Christianity for example). It is something that everyone is susceptible to. Denying that fact only opens yourself up to manipulation.

Countless people have gladly given their lives and taken countless lives under mistaken beliefs premised on scapegoating of some sort (WWII, many of the "brush fires" of the Cold War, Islamic Suicide Bombers, etc). To dismiss the power and effectiveness of scapegoating is the height of dangerous wishful thinking.

Yes, scapegoating only goes so far, but when it goes far enough to motivate a populace to mobilize in violence and aggression (as in the case of Nazi Germany, Maoist China, the Palestinian people, etc), how much farther does it need to go?

 

[04SCTLS]

And it goes VERY far in the Middle East.

Blaming others for your failures is a very effective tactic in politics and takes many forms. Class warfare in the western world and, in the Middle East, antisemitism.

While you may not want to believe it, scapegoating has allowed countless tyrannies to stay in power as large masses of the populace suffer and die. Iran is a prime example.

Scapegoating has also allowed radicals to co-opt legitimate resentments toward their own ends (the Nazi, for example). It is a good way to redirect resentments toward your favor (and away from your failures).

All one has to do is look at history to see this, yet you specifically avoid looking at history to believe whatever you want to believe. Convenient.

In fact, there have been instances where you have bought into various types of scapegoating (your hostility toward Christianity for example). It is something that everyone is susceptible to. Denying that fact only opens yourself up to manipulation.

Countless people have gladly given their lives and taken countless lives under mistaken beliefs premised on scapegoating of some sort (WWII, many of the "brush fires" of the Cold War, Islamic Suicide Bombers, etc). To dismiss the power and effectiveness of scapegoating is the height of dangerous wishful thinking.

Again with the black and white.(like 1's and 0's, yes or no)
I acknowledge the power of scapegoating and don't dismiss it (look at Sarah Palin and the Arizona shooting I ran with a few weeks ago ) but it only goes so far.(I said this before you edited your post something I do a lot too)
Many people are easily led but at some point one has to stop blaming others for their own shortcomings.
I don't think whipping up anti israeli sentiments will be effective in this case.
It's besides the point this time so maybe later it may be useful again but not now.
Also this is the first event like this facilitated by social media a new phenomenon that was not around in the past so there with your talking about the past to predict the future.
A new thing has altered the equation.
Governments are losing their control of information.

 

[Calabrio]

Your viewing things far too narrowly and you simply do not understand the political and social forces involved here.

Egypt isn't even the big picture here.

There are two major issues at play here-
International Islamic Jihad
&
Global economic instability and the political consequences of that.

You keep presenting a false reality based upon YOUR projection imposed onto the power players in the region that isn't reality based. However, if you want to engage in such optimistic, unrealistic thinking, then you need to also develop a plausible way for it to be achieved.

If you want to believe that the events that took place last week (that have exploded today and reinforce my point about disorder), then you need to figure out how it will happen. Who, or even what group can now quickly ascend into a position of credibility, authority, and power and stabilize the population. You also have to understand what triggered the riots, what pressures are at play, and who's on the ground. After that, you have to come up with the "how" solution. Right now, you just keep saying "No one knows...."

Well, we do know an awful lot.
We do know the history of the country and the broader region. We do know the culture. We do know the religion. We do know the agendas and the goals of the power brokers in that region. We do know a bit about the political landscape in the country right now. And we do know that this instability is NOT isolated in the just Egypt, and the threat extends beyond the Middle East.

Again, this is closer to Iran 1979 than Berlin 1989.
And as the cassette tape was the technology used then, it is the internet and the ability to publish from home this time.

 

[shagdrum]

Many people are easily led but at some point one has to stop blaming others for their own shortcomings.

There is no reason to get into a normative discussion. What "should be" is irrelevant here. What matters is what is; reality.

I don't think whipping up anti israeli sentiments will be effective in this case.
Also this is the first event like this facilitated by social media a new phenomenon that was not around in the past so there with your talking about the past to predict the future.

Social media is hardly a game changer in and of itself, let alone something that will nullify the susceptibility of the populace to anti-Israeli sentiment; especially a culture that has grown up to be indoctrinated on that sentiment.

The recent happenings in Iran were similar enough and that revolt was squashed in the age of instant information. Social media is simply another variable that can be (and is) just as easily manipulated to stoke anti-Israeli sentiment as to work against it.

This revolt is showing success so far, but there is no reason to think it is not very susceptible to manipulation through anti-Israeli sentiment. That is where the ultimate danger lies.

I would hope you are right about anti-Israeli sentiment being ineffective here, but I see no reason to think it would not be. The immediate information provided by the social media age has not shown to have any subduing effect on the susceptibility to scapegoating; whether it be in class warfare rhetoric, ideologically motivated hatred, racist rhetoric, etc.

 

[04SCTLS]

There is no reason to get into a normative discussion. What "should be" is irrelevant here. What matters is what is; reality.



Social media is hardly a game changer in and of itself, let alone something that will nullify the susceptibility of the populace to anti-Israeli sentiment; especially a culture that has grown up to be indoctrinated on that sentiment.

The recent happenings in Iran were similar enough and that revolt was squashed in the age of instant information.

This revolt is showing success so far, but there is no reason to think it is not very susceptible to manipulation through anti-Israeli sentiment. That is where the ultimate danger lies.

I would hope you are right about anti-Israeli sentiment being ineffective here, but I see no reason to think it would not be. The immediate information provided by the social media age has not shown to have any subduing effect on the susceptibility to scapegoating; whether it be in class warfare rhetoric, ideologically motivated hatred, racist rhetoric, etc.

All true
(see we do agree sometimes though arguing is more sporting)

but we shouldn't jump to foregone conclusions based on the past.
All revolutions are the kind of the same yet different in their details.
If nothing else the advent of social media is "encouraging" (with courage being the operative word) to otherwise fearful people.
The pen(smart phone-Facebook) is mightier than the sword(the security forces)
Half the people in Egypt are under 25 and probably tired of the same old rhetoric of blame and victimization.

 

[Calabrio]

All revolutions are the kind of the same yet different in their details.
If nothing else the advent of social media is "encouraging" (with courage being the operative word) to otherwise fearful people.
The pen(smart phone-Facebook) is mightier than the sword(the security forces)

No, all revolutions are not the same.
However, RIOTS do have an awful lot in common.

 

[04SCTLS]

No, all revolutions are not the same.
However, RIOTS do have an awful lot in common.

All revolutions are based on the idealized belief of a better tomorrow fraudulent or not.
Riots do not go on for a week or longer but revolutions do.

 

[shagdrum]

Half the people in Egypt are under 25 and probably tired of the same old rhetoric of blame and victimization.

That is a MASSIVE assumption to make.

In my experience, the younger your are, the harder it is to maintain objectivity and use critical thought and the more susceptible you are to emotional appeals, including scapegoating. Look at the G8 protests. Of all those people functioning under the class warfare delusions, how many are over 25?

If we are relying on the "wisdom" of the "25 and under" crowd, we are doomed.

 

[04SCTLS]

That is a MASSIVE assumption to make.

In my experience, the younger your are, the harder it is to maintain objectivity and use critical thought and the more susceptible you are to emotional appeals, including scapegoating. Look at the G8 protests. Of all those people functioning under the class warfare delusions, how many are over 25?

If we are relying on the "wisdom" of the "25 and under" crowd, we are doomed.

We rely not on their wisdom but on their energy, the energy and newness of youth and the promise of a better tomorrow. Although it's naive and idealistic (like most youth) the John Lennon song Imagine comes to mind.

 

[Calabrio]

I think my comment was lost in the back and forth,

If you want to believe that the events in Egypt are moving in a positive direction or will lead to a positive outome, then you need to define that outcome and figure out how it will happen.

Who, or even what group can now quickly ascend into a position of credibility, authority, and power and stabilize the population. You also have to understand what triggered the riots, what pressures are at play, and who's on the ground. After that, you have to come up with the "how" solution. Right now, you just keep saying "No one knows...."

Well, we do know an awful lot.
We do know the history of the country and the broader region. We do know the culture. We do know the religion. We do know the agendas and the goals of the power brokers in that region. We do know a bit about the political landscape in the country right now. And we do know that this instability is NOT isolated in the just Egypt, and the threat extends beyond the Middle East.

 

[04SCTLS]

I think my comment was lost in the back and forth,

If you want to believe that the events in Egypt are moving in a positive direction or will lead to a positive outome, then you need to define that outcome and figure out how it will happen.

Who, or even what group can now quickly ascend into a position of credibility, authority, and power and stabilize the population. You also have to understand what triggered the riots, what pressures are at play, and who's on the ground. After that, you have to come up with the "how" solution. Right now, you just keep saying "No one knows...."

Well, we do know an awful lot.
We do know the history of the country and the broader region. We do know the culture. We do know the religion. We do know the agendas and the goals of the power brokers in that region. We do know a bit about the political landscape in the country right now. And we do know that this instability is NOT isolated in the just Egypt, and the threat extends beyond the Middle East.

And.........what?
What conclusion do you reach?
You're using a lot of words to not say much.
All you're saying is we know the players and the stage but not the actual play (because it is being made up as it goes along)
This is a spontaneous real time event and all your speculations are just conjectures based on assumptions.
So far the good news is we have mostly escaped being scapegoated even though Mubarek is our guy.
On a side note
Funny no one has mentioned that that Al Queda's #2 Egyptian doctor Ayman al-Zawahiri in his first act on the world stage was responsible for assassinating Anwar Sadat over the Camp David peace accord which brought Mubarek to power.
I guess the media is trying to avoid any mention of this and I haven't seen Zawahiri say anything yet.