mespock
Marxists - Socialists
The dawn of this new era feels a lot like the Gipper's 'Morning in America.' But the president-elect's oratorical and inspirational powers will be tested as he guides us through the economic crisis. 
 
dap("&PG=INVILS&AP=1089",300,250);http://digg.com/remote-submit?phase=2&url=By Jon Markman
Investors worldwide have prepared for a new chief executive of the most important country on Earth for months by shedding assets and shivering with dread -- and on Tuesday they got their man.
The new boss of the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve, armed forces and dollar, the new director of global trade flows, the new captain of the capitalist system, will be a 47-year-old attorney who grew up about as far from the dark center of power as can be imagined -- in sun-baked Honolulu.
Barack Obama now stands in broad daylight, where skeptical investors in Tokyo, Singapore, Beijing and London can assess the real man instead of the political animal running for election.
I think they will find his intelligence, his oratory, his dedication to public service, his ease at gathering smart advisers, his ability to inspire confidence and his tight management of a brilliant political campaign are all the real deal. As a result, despite his incredibly thin résumé, investors will come to believe he is ready to take on this august job.
But now comes the tough part: Obama faces a domestic economy ravaged by falling home prices, rising unemployment and thinning industrial production. He faces a banking system savaged by epic greed. He faces a public that's more cynical than ever about its leaders. And he faces two wars. A financial world in turmoil
It's a mess, to be sure, and in many ways, the next two months may represent the apex of the world's hopes for Obama's success at setting everything straight. The next half-dozen U.S. economic problems that arise will be attributed to his predecessor, after all.
But the next dozen after that will be laid at his feet. The way he and his team deal with them will determine our success as investors and citizens over the next four to eight years, and the shape of the world in which my children, now 13 and 16, will emerge as adults.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/community/message/thread.asp?board=PoliticsandtheMarkets&threadid=838192
It's almost impossible to say with certainty how Obama will govern as these difficulties arise, for there is nothing in his background that will help us judge. We can only pray that he approaches issues in a holistic way -- not reactively but with a grand plan into which each fresh nuance is thoughtfully fit -- much as he conquered the intricacies of the long presidential race.
 
I'm hopeful Obama will turn out to be as successful as Ronald Reagan in this regard. Reagan was no genius in the classic sense, but he had a thoughtful, humanistic vision that guided his path. And for the most part he had a good economic team that cleaned up the titanic mess of the 1980-81 recession and, after an initial 20% decline in the stock market in his first 20 months, delivered us into a bull market that generally prevailed for 25 years.
Obama was sometimes criticized during the campaign for being more of a speechmaker than a lawmaker, but that is not such a bad thing. Smart words, delivered well in public, have incredible power. The ability to inspire confidence in a well-articulated vision can help drive men and women to achieve things that may be well beyond their own imagined abilities. This is something that we have seen repeatedly through history, and it should not be minimized.
 
My father was a huge fan of Winston Churchill, and instead of listening to music at home, we sometimes listened to recordings of the British prime minister's speeches. After the humiliating Dunkirk evacuation in June 1940, Churchill told his countrymen: "We shall go on to the end; we shall fight in France; we shall fight on the seas and oceans; we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air; we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be; we shall fight on the beaches; we shall fight on the landing grounds; we shall fight in the fields and in the streets; we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender!"
Those were powerful words that galvanized the island nation. And likewise did Reagan, for all his faults, lift the spirits of Americans and Europeans during the Cold War. In one of his most beautiful and well-delivered speeches, delivered at Pointe du Hoc, France, to commemorate the 40th anniversary of D-Day on June 6, 1984, Reagan recalled the sacrifices made by American, French and British soldiers to save the continent from fascism.
In a speech penned by Peggy Noonan, Reagan said: "Forty summers have passed since the battle that you fought here. You were young the day you took these cliffs; some of you were hardly more than boys, with the deepest joys of life before you. Yet you risked everything here. Why? Why did you do it? What impelled you to put aside the instinct for self-preservation and risk your lives to take these cliffs? We look at you, and somehow we know the answer. It was faith and belief; it was loyalty and love. . . .
"You all knew that some things are worth dying for. One's country is worth dying for, and democracy is worth dying for, because it's the most deeply honorable form of government ever devised by man. All of you loved liberty. All of you were willing to fight tyranny, and you knew the people of your countries were behind you."
Forgetting the politics of left and right, red and blue, this is the leadership tradition that I think Obama inherits, and he does so at a time that might well be considered the financial equivalent of a new world war. Doing the right thing
The global battle to fight the scourges of deleveraging, disinflation and defeatism will be long and hard, and we will all suffer many setbacks. Bad things happen in bear markets as the public mood sours. Over the next four years we can expect a lot of tensions among countries to erupt, flaming into battles worse than the recent one between Russia and Georgia, as natural resources grow thin, nerves fray and nationalism swells.
Because no one really knows how to fight the coming battle -- or what weapons to deploy as the financial markets unwind trillions of dollars of leveraged debt -- we can count on a lot more volatility ahead as disappointments mount and government intervention efforts score occasional success before meeting inevitable roadblocks. A first-term stock market decline similar to the one Reagan met while battling the last severe recession would put the Dow Jones industrials ($INDU) at 7,500 by August 2010.
 
In these circumstances, the world will need a leader in Washington who can meld his people by sheer force of personality and oratory to confront these dragons as a common task and sacrifice, much like Churchill and Reagan did, and give hope that better days will lie ahead. Fortunately, it seems like we have that guy, and now it's up to him to execute. He'll have a short window in which to gain the markets' confidence, so let's hope he can lead a nation to defeat a culture of debt as well as he led his campaign to defeat the old political establishment.
It's fitting to allow Churchill the benediction. "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing," he said. "After they've tried everything else."
	
		
			
		
		
	
				
			dap("&PG=INVILS&AP=1089",300,250);http://digg.com/remote-submit?phase=2&url=By Jon Markman
Investors worldwide have prepared for a new chief executive of the most important country on Earth for months by shedding assets and shivering with dread -- and on Tuesday they got their man.
The new boss of the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve, armed forces and dollar, the new director of global trade flows, the new captain of the capitalist system, will be a 47-year-old attorney who grew up about as far from the dark center of power as can be imagined -- in sun-baked Honolulu.
Barack Obama now stands in broad daylight, where skeptical investors in Tokyo, Singapore, Beijing and London can assess the real man instead of the political animal running for election.
I think they will find his intelligence, his oratory, his dedication to public service, his ease at gathering smart advisers, his ability to inspire confidence and his tight management of a brilliant political campaign are all the real deal. As a result, despite his incredibly thin résumé, investors will come to believe he is ready to take on this august job.
But now comes the tough part: Obama faces a domestic economy ravaged by falling home prices, rising unemployment and thinning industrial production. He faces a banking system savaged by epic greed. He faces a public that's more cynical than ever about its leaders. And he faces two wars. A financial world in turmoil
It's a mess, to be sure, and in many ways, the next two months may represent the apex of the world's hopes for Obama's success at setting everything straight. The next half-dozen U.S. economic problems that arise will be attributed to his predecessor, after all.
But the next dozen after that will be laid at his feet. The way he and his team deal with them will determine our success as investors and citizens over the next four to eight years, and the shape of the world in which my children, now 13 and 16, will emerge as adults.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/community/message/thread.asp?board=PoliticsandtheMarkets&threadid=838192
It's almost impossible to say with certainty how Obama will govern as these difficulties arise, for there is nothing in his background that will help us judge. We can only pray that he approaches issues in a holistic way -- not reactively but with a grand plan into which each fresh nuance is thoughtfully fit -- much as he conquered the intricacies of the long presidential race.
I'm hopeful Obama will turn out to be as successful as Ronald Reagan in this regard. Reagan was no genius in the classic sense, but he had a thoughtful, humanistic vision that guided his path. And for the most part he had a good economic team that cleaned up the titanic mess of the 1980-81 recession and, after an initial 20% decline in the stock market in his first 20 months, delivered us into a bull market that generally prevailed for 25 years.
Obama was sometimes criticized during the campaign for being more of a speechmaker than a lawmaker, but that is not such a bad thing. Smart words, delivered well in public, have incredible power. The ability to inspire confidence in a well-articulated vision can help drive men and women to achieve things that may be well beyond their own imagined abilities. This is something that we have seen repeatedly through history, and it should not be minimized.
My father was a huge fan of Winston Churchill, and instead of listening to music at home, we sometimes listened to recordings of the British prime minister's speeches. After the humiliating Dunkirk evacuation in June 1940, Churchill told his countrymen: "We shall go on to the end; we shall fight in France; we shall fight on the seas and oceans; we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air; we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be; we shall fight on the beaches; we shall fight on the landing grounds; we shall fight in the fields and in the streets; we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender!"
Those were powerful words that galvanized the island nation. And likewise did Reagan, for all his faults, lift the spirits of Americans and Europeans during the Cold War. In one of his most beautiful and well-delivered speeches, delivered at Pointe du Hoc, France, to commemorate the 40th anniversary of D-Day on June 6, 1984, Reagan recalled the sacrifices made by American, French and British soldiers to save the continent from fascism.
In a speech penned by Peggy Noonan, Reagan said: "Forty summers have passed since the battle that you fought here. You were young the day you took these cliffs; some of you were hardly more than boys, with the deepest joys of life before you. Yet you risked everything here. Why? Why did you do it? What impelled you to put aside the instinct for self-preservation and risk your lives to take these cliffs? We look at you, and somehow we know the answer. It was faith and belief; it was loyalty and love. . . .
"You all knew that some things are worth dying for. One's country is worth dying for, and democracy is worth dying for, because it's the most deeply honorable form of government ever devised by man. All of you loved liberty. All of you were willing to fight tyranny, and you knew the people of your countries were behind you."
Forgetting the politics of left and right, red and blue, this is the leadership tradition that I think Obama inherits, and he does so at a time that might well be considered the financial equivalent of a new world war. Doing the right thing
The global battle to fight the scourges of deleveraging, disinflation and defeatism will be long and hard, and we will all suffer many setbacks. Bad things happen in bear markets as the public mood sours. Over the next four years we can expect a lot of tensions among countries to erupt, flaming into battles worse than the recent one between Russia and Georgia, as natural resources grow thin, nerves fray and nationalism swells.
Because no one really knows how to fight the coming battle -- or what weapons to deploy as the financial markets unwind trillions of dollars of leveraged debt -- we can count on a lot more volatility ahead as disappointments mount and government intervention efforts score occasional success before meeting inevitable roadblocks. A first-term stock market decline similar to the one Reagan met while battling the last severe recession would put the Dow Jones industrials ($INDU) at 7,500 by August 2010.
In these circumstances, the world will need a leader in Washington who can meld his people by sheer force of personality and oratory to confront these dragons as a common task and sacrifice, much like Churchill and Reagan did, and give hope that better days will lie ahead. Fortunately, it seems like we have that guy, and now it's up to him to execute. He'll have a short window in which to gain the markets' confidence, so let's hope he can lead a nation to defeat a culture of debt as well as he led his campaign to defeat the old political establishment.
It's fitting to allow Churchill the benediction. "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing," he said. "After they've tried everything else."