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Election Predictions

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Posted by: MonsterMark

Time to predict Tuesday.

Post it here so you can tell everyone on Wednesday: 'I told you so'.

Posted by: MonsterMark

Senate:

51 Republicans
49 Democrats

House:

217 Republicans
218 Democrats with 2 Dems switching party affiliation

thus 219 (R), 216 (D)

Posted by: fossten

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonsterMark

Senate:

51 Republicans
49 Democrats

House:

217 Republicans
218 Democrats with 2 Dems switching party affiliation

thus 219 (R), 216 (D)

Which two Dems?

Posted by: MonsterMark

Quote:

Originally Posted by fossten

Which two Dems?

Still supposed to be confidential but the rumors are flying. There is historical data that backs this up. Sometimes people don't want 2 years of acrimony in Congress and the White House and it is far easier to hand out a couple of choice positions as fair and just compensation for a 'switch'. Stay tuned.

I might be upping my Senate numbers to 52 - 48 and the House may hold. I just do not believe the numbers I am seeing. Republicans have a history of being the silent majority, especially when it comes to national defense. The Democrats and the Liberal Media have had 2 full years to lie and distort their way into power.

Remember, historically, the party in power in the White House loses 34 seats in House and 6 in the Senate in a 6th year Presidential term. Anything less than that for the Republicans can be seen as a HUGE VICTORY for the Pubs and a HUGE DEFEAT for the Dims. After all, this is the year of the Tsunami for the Dems. That is all the media has been telling us for the past year. So we'll see.

I am feeling pretty good right now and I think that once again, the liberal media has again failed to measure the pulse of the people. All this polling data is again flawed, with the bias towards the Dems. Even my once accurate Rasmussen fell to the lust of the far left. He is no better than Zogby at this point. Too bad too. He used to get it right.

Posted by: MonsterMark

Can't believe nobody else had the balls to make a prediction.

But I am sure there will be alot of 'I told you so's' after the results are in.

Wimps.

I suspect a very large turnout on the Republican side.
Normally my location is in the low 200's at the time I voted. It was at 500 and people were pouring in. And this is a conservative district. I think the media may have very well over-played their hand again in trying to influence the outcome of the elections.

I will say this however. I had made a previous comment to the effect that it would be a good thing for the Republicans in '08 to lose in '06 so people would get a good look at the Dems for 2 years. With no incumbent running in '08, a Nancy Pelosi House of Representatives would really give people a nasty taste of who the Dems really are. It would be a bruising 2 years for Bush but I know he could handle it. The veto pen would finally come out so nothing of consequence would happen. In the end, the Republicans would wind up with a lot of cannon fodder for the '08 elections.

My front runner of George Allen is obviously DOA so I have moved my support to Congressman Duncan Hunter of California. He could help, along with Arnold to carry that state which would hand the Republicans the Presidency in almost every scenario.

Today is conservative turnout day. Go Elephants!

Posted by: Calabrio

I hadn't seen this thread until now.

..I think it's going to sting, but I do not expect the gains the Democrats have been promoting. There is little doubt in my mind that there has been an orchestrated effort by the left to discourage turnout by the right. I don't think it's going to be as effective as they hoped.

As you noted, in historical terms, anything short of a massive win by Democrats today equates to a historical loss. To have made no gains despite a two term President and an unpopular war is amazing.

Sadly, Harris is running for Senate in Florida, so the vulnerable Nelson is safe, and that Democrat seat is secure for another six years.

I voted Republican retention of both optimistically. I personally just haven't had access to the "real" data regarding the election this season to make a truely knowledgable decicion.

The fact the GOP was spending money and positive in the days leading up to the race is encouraging, and the somber tone by Democrats like Rahm Emanuel was also good news. Typically, the parties have REAL polling data, accurate polling data, not like the consumer crap we get from FOX, CNN, NBC, TIME, ect..

We'll have to wait and see.

And then wait for the Democrats to stop trying to break the rules (ie. keeping polling locations open longer in minority districts) and run out of court challenges.

What's important to note is that strong conservatives like Santorum are at great risk, likely voted out. So, to anyone who thinks that voting out the Republicans will result in a stronger conservative crop in '08, you're deceiving yourself. They'll likely run to the center in an effort to broaden their appeal. That's the natural response.

Staying home and letting the Democrats win is unpatriotic. It's allowing the country to be hurt on the bad gamble it'll lead to a better political opportunity in two years. Now is not a time in our history where we can afford to have that happen.

Posted by: fossten

I'm not so sure George Allen is DOA. He was a very popular governor and Senator, and only a concentrated effort by the Washington Post of wall-to-wall 'macaca' and false n-word accusations managed to tighten his race. That is no indication of how he would fare in a national election where people have basically two candidates to choose from.

Personally, I prefer either Newt or Mitt.

Posted by: TheDude

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonsterMark

Senate:

51 Republicans
49 Democrats

House:

217 Republicans
218 Democrats with 2 Dems switching party affiliation

thus 219 (R), 216 (D)

48 R
52 D

217 R
218 D (final)

Democrats are taking it all back MonsterMark! I have the amour piercing 'owned' smiley loaded and cocked for Wednesday.

Posted by: TheDude

My numbers were off but I did get the Dem/Dem part dead on the money... Do I at least get a shiny button?

Posted by: Calabrio

Quote:

Originally Posted by 95DevilleNS

My numbers were off but I did get the Dem/Dem part dead on the money... Do I at least get a shiny button?

Maybe an admin can give you a fancy title or name change?

Posted by: fossten

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calabrio

Maybe an admin can give you a fancy title or name change?

Or a backbone.

Posted by: TheDude

Quote:

Originally Posted by fossten

Or a backbone.

I'd be open to leasing some of your mighty conservative backbone, but it is so full of spite with the agony of defeat right now, I fear my wittle liberal body couldn't take it.

Posted by: MonsterMark

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1738236/posts

Posted by: fossten

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonsterMark

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1738236/posts

See, now that's the kind of insight and political analysis that makes coming to this forum worthwhile. Hard data beats wild speculation anyday.

Even FDR lost seats in the middle of a war, eh? And we still won. Of course, back then, Democrats weren't pu$sy anti-war types either. Not to mention that FDR was a Dem, so the House and Senate actually became more hawkish, probably a good thing for the country at the time. Not so this election.